Are headline unemployment statistics lies?

EditorialBy George MillerShadowstats3-4-16


Take a good look at the chart at the right. Are the official unemployment statistics accurate?  Yes and no. Depends on what you are measuring. The headline unemployment number you see in MainStream Media, currently 4.9%,  is from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics). But it’s based upon the percentage of people collecting unemployment insurance out of the entire estimated labor force. But, the last Great Recession, which is arguably still going on, left more people unemployed without unemployment insurance than almost anyone alive has ever seen, meaning that the actual numbers are far higher.

According to Shadow Government Statistics (SGS)- – actual unemployment is actually more like 23%, based on other Labor Dept. information and estimates. SGS is run by a reputable economist, John Williams, using government data. But it reports way more than just the data cherry-picked by government and media for mass-distribution.


Above: BLS labor participation rate:

The difference between the “U-3” (headline statistic), U6 and ShadowStats numbers are that the latter ones include people in the shadows not on the unemployment statistics, because theirs has run out, or because they were never eligible for it. Also consider that many who ARE working are only part-time, many not by choice. A large number of people were forced into poverty or are in less remunerative jobs than previously. Per SGS:  “The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.” That number is now 23%. 

Digging even deeper, we see that 38% of the working age population is not working at all, according to the BLS See chart above left).  The number of structurally unemployed people is quite large. Some may not be working because they don’t have to, some by choice and many have just given up.

This morning I was reading the local mini-mainstream paper, the “Star,” which had dutifully, even enthusiastically, reported the 4.9% number when it came out. This morning, I saw another Star piece, an AP (Associated Press) article, extolling the “robust… healthy” expansion of jobs- 242,000, it claimed. Setting aside for a moment that 250-300,000 are required just to keep treading water, we looked closer and found that the statistic is based upon highly questionable assumptions.

There are multiple sources that question this. For example, LIES, DAMN LIES, & BLS STATISTICS, in a strongly-worded article in “The Burning Platform,” asserts that the jobs claim is false. We quote some here, but read the rest via the link above:

It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.

The Establishment data that gets all the headlines blared that 242,000 net new jobs were created in February. Of course, 129,000 fake birth/death jobs were factored into that number. Anyone with a functioning brain (excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC shills, and any government apparatchik) knows that more businesses have been closing than opening for the last four years as Obamacare and government solutions destroy the economy. Rather than adding 129,000 jobs, small businesses likely subtracted 50,000 jobs in February. That would put the true number at about 60,000.

In a shocking coincidence, Trim Tabs, a privately run independent company that monitors actual real time payroll withholding tax info issued a report two days ago which said the number of new jobs created in February was between 55,000 and 85,000, based on actual withholding tax data. If you are employed, payroll taxes are automatically extracted. This data cannot be manipulated by the government propagandists. It reveals the truth. No seasonal adjustments, tweaks or phantom jobs added. It’s pure tax data.

“The U.S. labor market is weaker than the conventional wisdom believes. We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added between 55,000 to 85,000 jobs in February, down from 175,000 to 205,000 jobs in January. Last month’s growth was the lowest since July 2013.

Another thing to consider is that incomes are about $5,000/year less than they were before the crash. When one factors in inflation, GDP1-16it’s even worse.The result of all these things is that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is showing little or no growth.

Why has such a truth gap has been opened up by those who some still naively trust to inform and guide them? To be sure, the regime in power and those before it, and we include powerful private interests as well as government, has a vested interest in making you believe things are rosy, to attract your support.  Some also believe that such behavior helps stimulate optimism and related economic activity which will be beneficial. While there may be some truth in that statement, it also sacrifices very hard-won credibility and more importantly, it means that people may be making important life decisions based upon on false information.

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One Response to Are headline unemployment statistics lies?

  1. Bruce Boyer March 15, 2016 at 11:17 am

    An excellent article expo[posing the lies that the propaganda outlets AKA media put out for the politicians.

    Another action that the tyrants are taking is forcing people out of self-employed stattus intio employee status. This accounts for much of the ‘job creation’. They force a company who uses Ind contractors to perform work to cease that type of arrangement to either hire employees directly or to hire a company that hires the employees. Doing that to people who are working, is an easy cheat to create’ job growth’.
    The Govt also dervies many other benefits from forcing ( enslaving ) people to have employee contracts in the terms of control, more labor Unions AKA “Well organized crime”and collecting more taxes directly. This is occuring both at the Federal and State levels. The agencies are ‘re-classifying’ work relationships and in doing so companies can be assessed massive fines by the Govt including assisng the income taxes they claim are owed by the alleged employees, without regard to the payment of the taxes bythe individual. The companies are intimidated and fined into compliance.

    There are no actual ‘rules’ for determining employee or Ind. Contractor status, there are only ‘guidelines’ which the Administrative body may choose to interpret or wiegh any way the wish, so there is no law that one can assert that one is complying with, it is all subjective… tyranny is what we have when we have no law and no rights. Our right to freely contract has been severed from us years ago.


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