Gavin’s Recall likely To Fail?

Column

By Richard Eber

It does little good to review the facts of life in California politics. No matter what is said, the State is still going to hell in a hand basket.

After years of abuse in the policy areas of energy, workman’s comp laws, high taxes, over regulation, bureaucratic environmental management, K1-12 education, public employee pensions, and Sanctuary Cities, the “golden goose” has been butchered by left wing extremists.

Unfortunately, very few are aware of this.  Unabated, Gavin Newsom and his minions in the Legislature, continue to destroy the coveted California lifestyle.  Thus far there have been virtually no repercussions for these actions. Meanwhile, businesses, skilled workers, and their families continue to flee to other regions of the country. This loss in population is evident with California losing one Congressional Seat in 2020.

Unfortunately, the powers that be continue to be in denial that the socialist government is responsible for this exodus as the middle class (other than public employees) bear the brunt for failed Progressive policies.

Thus far Gavin Newsom hasn’t faced very much scrutiny for his shoddy leadership.  Perhaps the reason for this is that there are so many areas of government malfeasance that it is hard to place blame on one or two factors much like the “combination of ingredients” in the old Anacin head ache commercials. California is suffering from a long list of maladies including:

• The highest overall tax rates in the USA for sales, personal, gas, business, etc.
• An atrocious public education system which performance wise is in the bottom 10% in the country.
• Trying to eliminate fossil fuels is a noble cause. Is California having the highest electricity and gas prices of all 50 States worth it?
• Major crime and homelessness continue to rise while political leaders advocate defunding the police and Progressive District Attorney’s refuse to prosecute dangerous felons.
• The State struggles to provide needed affordable housing by destroying existing single family neighborhoods with Draconian  proposals including SB, 8, 9, 10, and 478 in this legislative session.

In the midst of this chaos Governor Newsom spends his time, when not attending expensive shindigs at the “French Laundry” touting  Sanctuary Cities, Transgender rights,  eliminating Charter Schools, conducting lotteries  to promote Covid vaccines,  while telling his constituents how great things are under his leadership.

As the problems facing California are so complex, it has been difficult for the public to cast blame with any one individual.  Despite this, Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in the next 3 months. Over 1.6 million of his detractors signed petitions to boot him out of office.

I have even heard rumblings from hard core conservatives that they actually miss Jerry Brown! One friend remarked “At least he could say “no” once in awhile and veto a few extreme bills.”

Thus far the Republican Party in California holding only 24% of registered voters, in the public’s mind does not provide a reasonable alternative to Gavin Newsom. Holding about one quarter of the legislature (matching registration numbers) seats in Sacramento, the GOP is not taken very seriously except on conservative talk shows.

Indicative are card carrying Republicans running in local elections, having to change their registration to become Independents or even Democrats in order to have a chance at being elected to anything this side of dog catcher.

With such a weak opposition, it is likely Gavin Newsom will easily beat the recall.  It doesn’t hurt that he presently has a $ 16,000,000 (and growing) campaign fund. His coalition of public employee labor unions, High Tech, environmentalists, those receiving social entitlements, and his allies in the media, are not going to let their meal ticket be easily cancelled.

Despite the fact that many of those who signed the recall petition are Independents and Democrats, Newsom’s campaign is trying to depict those who are trying to recall him as being racist, White supremacists, and right wing extremists.  Much like the campaign that elected Newsom in 2020, his recall arguments will center on soft social issues

Thus far, those running against him businessman John Cox, former Rep Doug Ose, past GOP Mayor of San Diego Kevin Faulconer, and Transgender celebrity Caitlyn Jenner, have not resonated very well with potential voters.

Cox, who was defeated almost 2 to 1 by Newsom has never won an elected office in his life and is considered by many to be a Carpet Bagger. Faulconer enjoys little popularity away from his base in San Diego.  Former Congressman Doug Ose has limited financial resources, while Caitlyn Jenner is a sideshow that cheapens the political process.

With the exception of Caitlyn, these guys are dull and void of ideas on changing things with State government.  Unless major changes occur or new candidates emerge to fill the void, Newsom will likely keep his job by virtue of forfeit.

Despite these negatives, Gavin Newsom is not completely home free from being recalled.

The only thing that is likely to get in the way of this scenario is if there is a breakdown this summer in the delivery of water and electricity to California consumers.  Remember, almost 20 years ago, Gray Davis was booted out of office because of the horrible energy decisions he made with the Enron scandal.

If voters decide to equate Newsom’s support for the Green New Deal, Cap and Trade, eliminating combustion engines for cars, blocking construction of new fossil fuel power plants and water storage, things could turn against him in a hurry.

Even frustration with education, rising crime rates, homelessness, escalating pensions, and the poor quality of roads, will likely not be enough to defeat Newsom this year.

The greatest consequence of the recall campaign will probably be Newsom being exposed to the entire Country as being a two bit political hack.  This might preclude Newsom from winning a higher office at a later date.

On the other hand just take a look at who is currently occupying the White House and is serving as Vice-President these days.

Originally published by California Political News and Views  6/29/21

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Citizens Journal

Richard Eber studied journalism at the University of Oregon. He writes about politics, culture, education restaurants, and was former city and sports editor of UCSB Daily. Richard is president of Amerasa Rapid Transit, a specialized freight forwarder.

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