By Harold Hutchison
MSNBC political commentator Steve Kornacki outlined Tuesday how President Joe Biden’s approval rating could deliver devastating election results for Democrats.
“First the big picture indicator, we always say the president’s job approval rating, usually the most reliable indicator of how midterms are going to go. For Democrats, not good news. Joe Biden’s approval rating is 42.7%,” Kornacki told host Joy Reid. “Put that in perspective with modern presidents in their first midterm. Biden’s right at the same level that Trump, Obama, and Bill Clinton were in what were brutal midterms for them.”
“The only exception in modern times, George W. Bush, a year after 9/11,” Kornacki continued. “You see what this meant: for Trump, he lost the house in ’18, for Obama, his party lost the party in ’10, for Clinton, his party lost the house in `94. Biden’s approval rating is right in the range. That’s the bad news for Democrats.”
“What’s made this a little more complicated, though, is when you look at the generic ballot, when you ask folks, Democrat or Republican, who would you like to see control Congress next year, the Republicans have the lead on average on this question. It’s by one point. Democrats actually were ahead until the last week or two,” Kornacki said. “But if you look at the past in the most recent waves in midterm elections, ’18, ’14, ’10, ’06, these were all wave elections and the party that won those waves was up by more than a point at this juncture in the race. So the generic ballot is closer than we’ve seen in wave elections of recent times.”