Likely voters split 47-47; with very few undecided, it’s going to be all about turnout.
By TIM REDMOND, 48 Hills
The ballot measure that would recall District Attorney Chesa Boudin is a a dead heat, with 47 percent of likely voters supporting it and 47 percent opposing, a new poll from the Boudin campaign shows.
The poll, of 3,000 likely voters, is a sign that the Boudin campaign is making significant progress; only weeks ago, polling from across the board showed the recall far ahead.
The poll was conducted by Telegraph/TSG Research.
A rally against the recall: The campaign is making inroads.
A poll, of course, is just a poll, and measures potential voter stands at a moment in time. There are always margins of error; in fact, given changes in technology, polls have become less reliable in the past few years. (It’s much harder to get someone to answer a cell phone than it was to call land lines in the old days.)
But coming this close to the election, the poll suggests that the race is going to be a lot closer than many predicted.
“The new polls shows that this race is tied,” Julie Edwards, a spokesperson for the No on H campaign, told me. “Every vote counts, and we need every voter to make their voice heard.”
Jim Ross, a No on H strategist, said the results don’t surprise him. “I kept hearing that we were way down,” he said. “But that’s not what I was seeing on the streets.”
Ross told me that he recently went with Boudin to talk to voters in West Portal, which is not one of the city’s more progressive neighborhoods. “And people kept walking up and wanting to shake his and take selfies with him,” Ross said. “I realized that narrative had to be wrong.”
Boudin’s supporters have organized a massive field campaign—and that could make a difference in an election that will be determined to a great extent by turnout.
With no contested primaries or presidential election at the top of the ballot—and with voters a bit burned out by the string of three recent elections—the side that gets their folks to the polls will be the winner.
So far, it appears turnout across the board is low, even by June election standards.
So if Boudin’s campaign can get people excited enough to turn in their ballots in the next four days, the recall supporters could be in for a surprise.